No News

3/10/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 22bp this morning.  I have not been able to find any news that would move the markets today. We have auction results being released at noon today. The Fed starts their 2 day meeting next Tuesday. Thursday we have intial jobless claims, but they are not expected to move the markets. I will update the commentary if news breaks.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.

These are the views and opinions of Douglas Lenski, President of Wholesale Mortgage Services of Wisconsin. Douglas is a seasoned mortgage professional, and derives information from daily study of market trends, mortgage publications and other industry input.